2012 Final Quality Standings

Quality Standings are standings based on games teams played only against opponents with winning record. At the end of the season we have 14 teams with winning records, 8 in the NFC and 6 in the AFC. Here’s a list of all 14 teams who finished regular season with a winning record,

Denver Broncos (13-3), Atlanta Falcons (13-3), New England Patriots (12-4), Houston Texans (12-4), San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1), Green Bay Packers (11-5), Seattle Seahawks (11-5), Indianapolis Colts (11-5), Baltimore Ravens (10-6), Washington Redskins (10-6), Cincinnati Bengals (10-6), Minnesota Vikings (10-6), Chicago Bears (10-6), New York Giants (9-7),

and the table with Quality Standings sorted by conference and winning record (teams who made the playoffs are in bold):

A few observations from the Quality Standings above:

– Tennessee, Kansas City, Buffalo and Oakland are teams without a win against teams with winning record
– Seattle has the most wins against ‘quality’ teams (5)
– Atlanta has the best record (3-0), but they’ve also played the fewest games against ‘quality’ teams (3)
– Detroit has played the most games against teams with winning record (11).

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2012 Final Passer Rating Differential

Regular season is over and it’s time for the final update of the Passer Rating differential ranking (PRD, The Mother of All Stats as they call it at Cold Hard Football Facts). Here’s the updated table through Week 17 in the NFL (teams in bold made the playoffs).

PRD Week 17

There have been no major changes since I last posted the rankings through Week 12. The Packers are still at the top and No.1 ranked team thanks to their superior Offensive Passer Rating (OPR). Seattle Seahawks were ranked only 18th when I first posted the rankings with Week 4 concluded but they have been improving ever since, since Week 12 they’ve climbed additional 2 spots and finished regular season ranked 2nd on PRD and are clearly the hottest teams heading into the playoffs. Out of all playoff teams, the Vikings (24th) and the Colts (27th) are the only 2 teams ranked outside top 12 on PRD. Arizona is No.1 ranked team on Defensive Passer Rating (DPR), but the Cardinals also posted the worst OPR. Just like at the top there weren’t any major changes at the bottom, Kansas City Chiefs remain dead last on PRD, which has been the case for the major part of the regular season.

2012 Quality Standings – Week 14

Quality Standings are standings based on games teams played only against opponents with winning record. I first looked at those standings after Week 11 and have now updated the standings through Week 14 in the NFL. At this point in the season we have 16 teams with winning records, 9 in the NFC and 7 in the AFC. Here’s a list of those 16 teams currently holding a winning record,

Houston Texans (11-2), Atlanta Falcons (11-2), New England Patriots (10-3), Denver Broncos (10-3), San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1), Green Bay Packers (9-4), Baltimore Ravens (9-4), Indianapolis Colts (9-4), Seattle Seahawks (8-5), New York Giants (8-5), Chicago Bears (8-5), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6), Washington Redskins (7-6), Cincinnati Bengals (7-6), Dallas Cowboys (7-6), Minnesota Vikings (7-6),

and the table with Quality Standings sorted by conference and winning record:

2012 quality standings - W14

A few observations from the Quality Standings above:

– Buffalo and Kansas City are the only 2 teams without a win against teams with winning record
– Seattle has the most wins against ‘quality’ teams (5)
– Atlanta has the best record (3-0), but they’ve also played the fewest games against ‘quality’ teams (3)
– Detroit has played the most games against teams with winning record (9).

2012 Week 12 Passer Rating Differential

With only 5 weeks to go in the NFL we are getting closer to this year’s postseason. The last time I posted rankings based on Passer Rating Differential (PRD, The Mother of All Stats as they call it at Cold Hard Football Facts) was after Week 8. With another month of the 2012 season concluded, let’s look at updated PRD rankings (teams in bold would make the playoffs).

There are no major changes at the top and at the bottom of the rankings compared to Week 8. The Packers are still at the top and No.1 ranked team, they also have the best Offensive Passer Rating (OPR). Despite of poor offensive performance through last 4 weeks, since I last posted the rankings, the Bears dropped only 3 spots thanks to No.1 Defensive Passer Rating (DPR). New Orleans Saints made the biggest jump, climbing 13 spots from 29th to 16th. Philadelphia is a team who dropped the most in the last month, the Eagles are now 29th ranked team and have dropped 15 spots. Kansas City Chiefs remain last on OPR and are dead last on PRD through Week 12 in the NFL, just as they were through Week 8.

If the season ended after Week 12, 11 teams from top 14 on PRD would make the playoffs, included all top 5 teams. The exception is Indianapolis, ranked 31st on PRD but currently hold AFC Wild-Card playoff spot.

2012 Quality Standings – Week 11

With Week 11 completed it is time for Thanksgiving week in the 2012 NFL season, but before Week 12 starts on Thursday with Thanksgiving games, let’s take a look at teams’ standings from different angle. For the first time this season I put up a table of so-called Quality Standings in order to measure teams based on games they’ve played only against opponents with winning record. At this point in the season we have 14 teams with winning records, 8 in the NFC and 6 in the AFC. Here’s a list of those 14 teams currently holding a winning record,

Houston Texans (9-1), Atlanta Falcons (9-1), Baltimore Ravens (8-2), San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1), New England Patriots (7-3), Green Bay Packers (7-3), Chicago Bears (7-3), Denver Broncos (7-3), New York Giants (6-4), Seattle Seahawks (6-4), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4), Indianapolis Colts (6-4), Minnesota Vikings (6-4),

and the table with Quality Standings sorted by conference and winning record:

A few observations from the Quality Standings above:

– Carolina, Buffalo, San Diego, Kansas City, Cleveland and Miami have yet to win against teams with winning record
–  Houston, Seattle and San Francisco have the most wins against ‘quality’ teams (3)
–  Atlanta has the best record (1-0), but they also played only 1 game against ‘quality’ teams
– Dallas, Jacksonville and Carolina have played the most games against teams with winning record (7), with Dallas having the best record among those 3 teams.

2012 NFL midseason Scoreability and Bendability Index

First 9 weeks are behind us and with 132 games already played the NFL’s just crossed the midpoint of the regular season. At the end of last season I posted Final 2011 Scoreability & Bendability standings. Scoreability and bendability are just two of many quality stats first introduces at Cold Hard Football Facts. Halfway there, it seems appropriate to look at how teams rank on this two quality stats because they are much more correlated with wins in the NFL than the official stats such as total offense and total defense.

The scoreability and bendability indices are team-wide indicators, measuring teams’ ability to turn yards into points and they both take into account not only teams’ offensive or defensive performance but also include performance of special teams units.

Scoreability index is calculated by dividing total yards with total points scored. The result of this calculation is Yards per Point Scored (YPS). The lower the number, the more efficiently a team scores points.

Bendability index is calculated by dividing total yards allowed with total points allowed. The result of this calculation is Yards per Point Allowed (YPA). The higher the number, the more difficult a team makes it for opponents to score points.

Here’s a table of 1st half 2012 Scoreability and Bendability index for all 32 NFL teams.
Teams currently making the playoff are colored in blue (NFC) and red (AFC).

I compared the standings above with standings based on yards per game (total offense & total defense). Once again I can make the same conclusion I’ve made many times before. Total offense & defense are so-called ‘volume’ stats and don’t show the real picture when measuring teams in the NFL. Teams ranked high on total offense or defense don’t necessary win a lot of games. Perfect example are 2012 Dallas Cowboys, at midpoint of their season they are ranked 6th on total offense and 5th on total defense – top 10 on both statistical categories but with losing record sitting at 3-5. It is different story when we look at the Cowboys and how they rank on scoreability and bendability index. They are 30th on scoreability and 25th on bendability which basically tells us that Dallas plays inefficient and one of the worst ‘situational’ football among all NFL teams. Obviously scoreability and bendability are two stats that are much closer to ‘reality’ in the NFL.

So far in the season, top 10 ranked teams on total offense have a combined record of 43-38 (53.1%), 4 of those teams have losing records and only 4 would make the playoffs if the season ended after Week 9. Total defense shows slightly better picture as top 10 ranked teams have a 50-32 record (61.0%) with only one team with losing record and 6 making the playoffs.

On both, scoreability and bendability index, top 10 teams have a much better combined record, 58-24 (70.7%) and there’s not a single team with losing record ranked top 10 on both indicators and 8 out of 10 teams would make the playoffs. Scoreability and bendability clearly paint a much better picture in terms of which teams played efficient football through the first half of the season.

NFC West on Top

When Seattle Seahawks won NFC West division title 2 years ago with a 7-9 record it was crystal clear, NFC West was the worst division in pro football. Teams from the West posted a combined 25-39 regular season record – which was of course, worst in the NFL. Seattle became the only team in NFL history to win its division with a losing record and things didn’t look good for NFC West teams. Last season teams improved and recorded a combined 30-34 record, mainly thanks to San Francisco 49ers who finished regular season with a 13-3 record. Improved performances from Seattle and Arizona late in the season showed that things could get better in 2012.

Photo: sfgate.com

After Week 5 in the 2012 NFL season things are better, way better. NFC West division is the only division in the NFL in which all 4 teams have a winning record and their combined 14-6 record is the best in the NFL, 11-3 record if we count only games outside the division – again best in the NFL.

The main reason for teams’ success so far is outstanding performances from their defensive units and special teams. San Francisco is ranked No.1 in scoring defense allowing only 13.6 points per game, Seattle is 2nd, Arizona sits on 5th place and St. Louis Rams are 9th on the list.

On Defensive Passer Rating (DPR), which measures teams’ success in stopping the opposing passing game, all NFC West clubs are top 10 again. The Rams are leading the way, ranked 3rd among all NFL teams with a 66.59 DPR.