2013 NFL Week 13 picks

Just as I’ve thought that I could do no worse than Week 11 and was hoping to improve on that record I managed to go 6-7-1 on Week 12 NFL picks. Overall for the season: 107-68-1. For the first time since Week 3 there are no teams on bye week. Week 13 will start with 3 Thanksgiving games, here are my picks for those games, I’ll update this post later on this week with the rest of my picks for Week 13.

Update: All 3 home teams won on Thanksgiving Thursday which means 3-0 start on my Week 13 picks in the NFL, that’s 110-68-1 overall record for the season.
Update2: Week 13 record on my picks: 11-5, that’s 118-73-1 for the season.

Week 13



2013 Colin Kaepernick – Week 12 review

The 49ers got back on track with a win against a pretty bad Redskins team and improved to 4-0 under coach Jim Harbaugh in games played on Monday Night. After two dismal performances against the Panthers and the Saints, Colin Kaepernick did play better against Washington. In a way that was expected with the Redskins being one of the worst teams defending the pass. Technically, the 49ers had 11 drives on offense, not counting last drive with three kneel downs from Colin Kaepernick to end the game. With 11 drives the 49ers scored 27 points on offense, 3 TDs and 2 FGs.

1st drive: Own 31, 13:59 left in the 1st qrt, score tied 0-0
The 49ers started their first drive with F. Gore run who gained two yards. On second down Kaepernick hit Manningham with short pass for 11 yards and a first down. After F. Gore ran for five yards, Kaepernick failed to complete a pass on two drop backs, on first one he had to take a sack, the second one was a pass over the middle intended to V. Davis which was defended by CB D. Hall. The 49ers had to punt.

2nd drive: Own 21, 9:00 left in the 1st qrt, score tied  0-0
Kaepernick continued to look for Manningham on short passes, this time for 13 yards. But the drive ended similar to the first offensive possession, two drop backs resulted in a sack and incompletion which was intentional throw-away on second down. Second punt for the 49ers.

3rd drive: Own 38, 6:13 left in the 1st qrt, score tied 0-0
Again, Kaepernick looked for WR M. Manningham early on. First pass to him was incomplete, but the second one on 3rd-and-8  was on target for 11 yards and a first down. Later on 49ers almost lost the ball, Kaepernick fumbled the snap, but was able to pick up the ball and scrambled away for two yards. Facing 3rd-and-4 Kaepernick completed first of many deep passes in the game, 24 yards to A. Boldin. With first play inside the red zone, 49ers wasted little time to score, Kaepernick threw a great pass to A. Boldin who caught  19-yard touchdown pass.

4th drive: Own 42, 15:00 left in the 2nd qrt, SF up 7-0
Offense received a gift from the defense, D. Whitner intercepted RGIII which put the ball on SF 42-yard line. On the first play Kaepernick connected with V. Davis for 40 yards, Davis could have gained more yards after catch if Kaepernick hadn’t slightly underthrew the deep ball. After two more runs, Kaepernick had to scramble on 3rd-and-5, but he only got two yards on the play, short of another first down. The 49ers were forced to kick a field goal.

5th drive: Own 27, 6:43 left in the 2nd qrt, SF up 10-3
With first two plays 49ers gained five yards on the ground and faced 3rd-and-5. Kaepernick’s pass intended to A. Boldin was almost intercepted. First 3-and-out and the 49ers had to punt again.

6th drive: Own 35, 15:00 left in the 3rd qrt, SF up 10-6
Kaepernick’s first pass of next possession was again almost intercepted by P. Riley. On 3rd-and-9 V. Davis seemed to have a first down but lost the ball as he was fighting for extra yards. The fumble was recovered by Washington.

7th drive: Own 40, 12:06 left in the 3rd qrt, SF up 10-6
The Redskins turned the ball on downs and the 49ers started their next possession on own 40-yard line. Short pass to F. Gore and incomplete pass (forced drop) intended to V. Davis made it 3rd-and-7, but Kaepernick threw a great pass to Boldin for 32 yards for another set of downs. Facing 2nd-and-11 Kaepernick found open V. Davis for 20 yards to move into the redzone territory. With 1st-and-goal from the 6-yard line, Kaepernick showed patience when he was forced to leave the pocket, extended the play and waited for Boldin to get open in the back of the endzone for another TD.

8th drive: Opp 40, 7:45 left in the 3rd qrt, SF up 17-6
Kaepernick faced another third down after the 49ers gained only six yards on first two run plays. On 3rd-and-4 he tried to complete a pass to L. James, the pass was thrown behind LOS and a bit off-target. The 49ers decided to went for it on fourth down, this time Kaepernick almost had to throw the ball away. The 49ers turned the ball on downs.

9th drive: Opp 39, 3:35 left in the 3rd qrt, SF up 17-6
The drive started with false start penalty on A. Boldin. But on 1st-and-15 Kaepernick again had open receiver, this time it was V. McDonald for 23 yards. On the next play, Kaepernick ran on designed bootleg run for eight yards. Two runs from F. Gore for 12 yards made it 2nd-and goal from WAS 1-yard line. The 49ers faked the run which left V. Davis wide-open in the endzone for easy TD.

10th drive: Own 45, 14:48 left in the 4th qrt, SF up 24-6
Up by 18 in the beginning of fourth quarter, the 49ers engineered the longest drive of the game to put the game away. It was a mixture of runs and short passes, the drive took almost six minutes and ended with a FG.

11th drive: Own 20, 6:20 left in the 4th qrt, SF up 27-6
Leading by 21 the 49ers’ only intention was to run down the clock, they ran the ball five times on this drive, took almost four minutes off the clock and punted the ball away.

Drive stats
Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers had 56 offensive plays (three kneel downs at the end excluded) and scored 2.45 points per drive. Kaepernick didn’t turned the ball over, but he came close on a couple of plays. He passed for 3 TDs and now has 14 touchdown passes and 11 turnovers for the season.

W12-drive statsOffensive formations
Kaepernick lined up under center on almost 60% of all offensive snaps. The 49ers used the pistol offense on season low rate – 8.5%.

W12-formationsPass plays
Out of 56 offensive plays 31 (55.4%) were designed pass plays: 24 pass attempts, five scrambles and two plays resulted in a sack.

W12-passingAs already mentioned Kaepernick played much better against the Redskins completing 62.5% of his passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns with 134.6 passer rating, but he’ll need to play even better in December, especially in three games left against division rivals, Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis who play much better defense than the Redskins do.

W12-YPPAfter two sub par weeks versus Carolina and New Orleans, Kaepernick found a way to be a lot more efficient on designed pass plays against Washington. He was sacked two times earlier on but later found his rhythm and completed five passes for over 20 yards. More advanced figures also show he improved compared to last two weeks with 7.8 yards gained per pass play. But again, it all came against bad Washington pass defense.

W12-3rd 4th downKaepernick had success passing the ball on third down, he passed for almost 40% of his total passing yards on third down plays. Here’s a breakdown of all Kaepernick’s third down plays not only his pass attempts:

W12-3rd4thD situationsUnder pressure

W12-under pressureColin Kaepernick was pressured on nine (30.0%) of his total drop backs and completed one short pass to F. Gore for three yards. He managed to escape the pressure and scramble five times, on two occasions he couldn’t avoid the pressure and had to take a sack.

Incompletions
Kaepernick attempted 24 and completed 15 passes, which leaves him with nine incompletions.

W12-incompletionsRun plays
Colin Kaepernick gained eight yards on a designed bootleg run which was also his only designed run play.

W12-rushingConclusion
It took him a while, but Kaepernick did exploit Redskins’ pass defense as the game progressed and led the 49ers to an easy win in the end. The 49ers were successful finding favorable matchups which helped Kaepernick who, for the most part of the game, didn’t have problems finding open receivers. His longest completion was a pass to open TE Vernon Davis who continues to be Kaepernick’s favorite target along with WR A. Boldin. Those two are still the only players on a team who caught TD passes. Hopefully that will change as the season goes on, with Manningham seeing more action and with Crabtree and rookie Patton set to return soon.  The 49ers will need the passing game against better competition on the schedule ahead.
Next for the 49ers is a game against the St. Louis Rams on a short week at Candlestick Park. The last time this two teams met was a Week 4 TNF game in which San Francisco ran for 200+ yards. Since then, the Rams have improved and are ranked ninth against the run according to Football Outsiders so Kaepernick will have to make plays passing the ball against St. Louis who allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for 300+ yards with 80.1 passer rating in last couple of games.

2013 NFL Week 12 picks

I went 7-6, 7-7 and 7-8 on my Week 9 through Week 11 NFL picks. Overall for the season: 101-61. Week 12 is the last week with teams on bye, here is my pick for TNF game between New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, I’ll update this post later on this week with the rest of my picks for Week 12.

Update: 1-0 start on my Week 12 picks in the NFL with a Saints win on TNF whick makes it 102-61 record for the season.
Update2: Week 12 record on my picks: 6-7-1, that’s 107-68-1 for the season.

Week 12



2013 Colin Kaepernick – Week 11 review

Disappointing loss for the 49ers against NFC contender on the road. The 49ers had their chances but with poor performance on offense and with some controversial calls from the refs couldn’t come away with a victory against the Saints. Kaepernick did play better compared to Carolina game a week ago but in order to win against better competition the 49ers will have to improve in the passing game and that starts with quarterback. The 49ers started the game with three and ended with two 3-and-out series. They had 12 drives and scored only 20 points.

1st drive: Own 20, 15:00 left in the 1st qrt, score tied 0-0
The 49ers started the game with Kaepernick’s pass intended for M. Manningham. The pass was well defended and the ball fell incomplete. F. Gore got only 1 yard on second down and Kaepernick hit V. Davis on 3rd down for only 5 yards. First 3-and-out for SF offense.

2nd drive: Own 31, 10:46 left in the 1st qrt, score tied  0-0
The second drive started with F. Gore run for 0 yards. Kaepernick completed a pass to F. Gore for 6 yards on second down, but his 3rd down pass was tipped. Second 3-and-out for the 49ers.

3rd drive: Own 42, 7:55 left in the 1st qrt, score tied 0-0
San Francisco’s 3rd possession ended quickly again. Kaepernick couldn’t connect with A. Boldin on 1st down play. On 2nd down he was hit as he threw a pass intended for A. Boldin again, the ball sailed short and on 3rd down it was a pass to J. Baldwin which was incomplete. The 49ers were forced to punt.

4th drive: Own 20, 0:44 left in the 1st qrt, SF down 7-0
The 49ers got their first 1st down in the beginning of 2nd qrt. Kaepernick hit A. Boldin for 6 yards on 3rd down play. Three run plays gave the 49ers another 1st down. But then the drive ended on 3rd-and-2 play, it was L. James who was stopped for no gain from pistol formation. 4th drive and 4th punt for the 49ers.

5th drive: Opp 11, 10:26 left in the 2nd qrt, SF down 7-0
Thanks to special teams the offense got the ball back deep in the Saints territory. From NO 11 yard line Kaepernick found open J. Baldwin who couldn’t hold on to the ball as he fell down in the endzone. On 2nd down Kaepernick looked for his favorite WR, he hit Boldin with a quick pass for a touchdown.

6th drive: Own 27, 9:22 left in the 2nd qrt, score tied 7-7
K. Hunter run for -3 yards and a delay of game penalty made it 2nd-and-18. Kaepernick completed 2 short passes to V. McDonald and M. Manningham just enough for a first down. Later on, after F. Gore lost 1 yard, Kaepernick threw a pass intended for M. Manningham, the pass was intercepted but C. White fumbled the ball out of the endzone.

7th drive: Own 20, 6:25 left in the 2nd qrt, score tied 7-7
The last play of 6th drive resulted in a touchback which gave the 49ers the ball back on own 20 yard line. Kaepernick was sacked on first play, but defensive pass interference penalty put the ball on NO 45 yard line. F. Gore got 3 and Kaepernick another 5 yards on a scramble. That set up a 3rd-and-2 pass play. Kaepernick threw a short pass to V. McDonald who couldn’t catch the ball. P. Dawson’s 55-yard field goal attempt was good.

8th drive: Own 20, 1:58 left in the 2nd qrt, SF down 14-10
With less than 2 minutes remaining in the half the 49ers tried to get to at least field goal range. Kaepernick completed 2 short passes, one to L. James and the other to A. Boldin for another set of downs. His next pass to A. Boldin was way off-target and could have easily been intercepted. On 2nd down Saints pressured Kaepernick who couldn’t avoid a sack. Facing 3rd-and-12 the 49ers decided to run down the clock with a run play.

9th drive: Opp 22, 12:07 left in the 3rd qrt, SF down 14-10
SF defense was playing great all day. A. Brooks intercepted Brees and the 49ers had the ball on NO 22 yard line. F. Gore ran for 11 yards on 1st down but K. Hunter lost 6 on the next play. What followed was a well designed and well executed play. Kaepernick looked as he was going to run with the ball to his right, he then stopped and found V. Davis in the endzone for a touchdown.

10th drive: Own 40, 4:43 left in the 3rd qrt, SF up 17-14
The 49ers started the drive on own 40 yard line but it turned out to be their longest drive of the game. Kaepernick converted three 3rd down plays but was stopped on another 3rd down play. It was 3rd-and-9 when he tried to complete a pass to V. Davis who was held on the play but no flags were thrown. A play earlier Kaepernick missed a chance to hit open M. Manningham for a possible 1st down and was eventually forced to throw the ball away. The drive ended with a FG.

11th drive: Own 20, 7:50 left in the 4th qrt, SF up 20-17
Up by 3 late in the game, the 49ers missed a chance to put the game away. Kaepernick was forced to leave the pocket and managed to lob a pass to a wide open F. Gore. The ball was a bit underthrown but certainly catchable. It was missed opportunity to gain a lot of yards and move well into Saints territory. Instead the 49ers faced 3rd-and-9, Kaepernick was under pressure again and threw a pass WR J. Baldwin never expected. The 49ers had to punt.

12th drive: Own 20, 2:06 left in the 4th qrt, score tied 20-20
Another missed opportunity, with a game tied at 20-20 the 49ers went 3-and-out again and left enough time for the Saints to drive into field goal range. Kaepernick was sacked on first play of the drive and lost 9 yards. His second pass was intentionally thrown away as he was pressured again. On third down he left the pocket before the pressure got to him gained 16 yards on the scramble, 3 yards short of a first down.

Drive stats
Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers had 56 offensive plays and scored 1.7 points per drive. Kaepernick turned the ball over once when his pass intended for WR M. Manningham was intercepted. He now has 11 touchdowns and 11 turnovers for the season.

W11-drive statsOffensive formations
Kaepernick was under center on exactly 50% of all offensive snaps. Similar to Week 10 game against Carolina, the 49ers were in the shotgun against the Saints a lot. Again, with weak passing attack, the pistol offense hasn’t really been working for the 49ers lately, that’s why it wasn’t used as much as it was in the last season’s playoffs.

W11-formationsPass plays
Out of 56 offensive plays 37 (66.1%) were designed pass plays: 31 pass attempts, 3 scrambles and 3 plays resulted in a sack.

W11-passingIn the last 2 games against CAR and NO, Kaepernick completed less than 60% of his passes and he passed for only 218 yards combined. Of course there’s a lot more to it than just passing yards, but those are some alarming numbers. Kaepernick will have to do better passing the ball and exploit opposing defenses through the air, especially when they put 8 or even 9 men in the box to defend the power running game.

W11-YPPMore advanced figures also show that the 49ers again had hard time passing the ball when they needed to. Following worst performance of his career against Carolina (2.2 Yards per Pass Play), Kaepernick didn’t do a whole lot better against the Saints with 3.8 YPP and a 8.1% sack rate.

Kaepernick completed 6 of 11 3rd down pass attempts for 50 yards.

W11-3rd 4th downHere’s a breakdown of all Kaepernick’s 3rd down plays:

W11-3rd4thD situationsUnder pressure

W11-under pressureColin Kaepernick was pressured on 10 (27.0%) of his total drop backs and again failed to complete a pass under duress. He attempted 5 passes when under pressure with 0 completions and was sacked 3 times. The other 2 pressure plays were scrambles.

Incompletions
Kaepernick attempted 31 (2nd highest this season, only behind Week 1 vs Green Bay) and completed 17 passes, 1 of his passes was intercepted. Here’s breakdown of his 13 incompletions. For the second week in a row, 40% of his incompletions were dropped passes.

W11-incompletionsRun plays
For the third time this season Colin Kaepernick didn’t run on a designed run play. He did scramble 3 times for 25 yards, his last scramble for 16 yards was a scramble not forced by opponents’ pressure.

W11-rushingConclusion
The game will be remembered by controversial penalty on A. Brooks who put a vicious hit on Saints’ quarterback, which was, at least in my opinion, legal hit. Had it been called that way it would probably be the reason why SF won the game, but the way it was called it certainly wasn’t the reason why SF lost the game. For the second week in a row SF defense did its part of the job, but unfortunately the 49ers continue to struggle on offense. When their power running game is taken away, the 49ers can’t find ways to move the ball through the air. 2nd-9-3rd_qrtThe 49ers missed too many opportunities before and after the controversial play and need to improve on lots of things. They need to learn to operate much quicker on offense, get faster to the line of scrimmage and get plays in faster and not waste time-outs the way they did on Sunday against the Saints. And then there’s already mentioned non-existent passing attack. The Saints dared the 49ers to pass the ball, constantly stacking the box to commit against the run, but the 49ers could not get anything going through the air. V. Davis and A. Boldin continue to be the only reliable targets for C. Kaepernick who didn’t show that he can play with the kind of confidence he played last season.
Next for the 49ers is a game against the Washington Redskins in a Monday Night Football matchup. The Redskins are 3-7 but could present problems for San Francisco if the 49ers won’t find ways to attack Redskins’ 24th pass defense (according to Football Outsiders).

2013 NFL Week 11 picks

I thought I could do no worse than 7-6 record in Week 9, but somehow I manage to go 7-7 with my Week 10 NFL picks which makes it 94-53 overall for this season. Here is my pick for TNF game between Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, I’ll update this post later on this week with the rest of my picks for Week 11.

Update: 1-0 start as I picked the Colts to win on TNF, that makes it 95-53 overall for the season.
Update2: 7-8 record on my Week 11 picks, that’s 101-61 for the season.

Week 11



2013 Colin Kaepernick – Week 10 review

Ugly. That’s one way to describe 49ers’ performance on offense against the Panthers on Sunday. The 49ers couldn’t move the ball, especially after V. Davis had to leave the game with a concussion. Colin Kaepernick had his worst performance since he took over at quarterback for San Francisco 49ers who didn’t score a touchdown for the second time this season. The 49ers had 13 drives and came up with only 3 field goals.

1st drive: Own 20, 15:00 left in the 1st qrt, score tied 0-0
The  49ers’ first drive was also their longest drive of the game. SF went 9 plays for 46 yards which took 4:15 off the clock. The drive was a mixture of quick short passes and F. Gore runs, but on critical 3rd-and-2 from CAR 33 yard line the 49ers couldn’t get a first down. It was F. Gore who lost 1 yard on the play and the 49ers had to settle for a field goal.

2nd drive: Own 26, 9:07 left in the 1st qrt, SF up 3-0
The second drive started the same way the first ended, this time it was L. James who lost yard on the play. On the next play Kaepernick hit M. Manningham for 10 yards. The pass was a bit overthrown and Manningham couldn’t get any yards after catch necessary for a first down, it was 3rd-and-1. On that critical 3rd down it was Gore who carried the ball, but again lost yard. The 49ers had to punt.

3rd drive: Own 24, 2:23 left in the 1st qrt, SF up 3-0
It got worst on the 49ers’ next possession. Kaepernick was sacked for a loss of 4 yards to start this 3rd drive.  Following F. Gore run for 5 yards, Kaepernick had to scramble and gained 5 yards on 3rd-and-9. The 49ers had to punt again, but Carolina’s punt returner muffed the punt and 49ers recovered the ball in the Panthers territory.

4th drive: Opp 41, 0:17 left in the 1st qrt, SF up 3-0
The turnover gave the 49ers the ball on CAR 41 yard line. Kaepernick passed the ball to F. Gore who got 11 yards. Later, after 3 yard Gore run and incomplete pass intended for M. Manningham, Kaepernick found V. Davis for 2 yards, short of a first down. The drive ended with a field goal.

5th drive: Own 32, 12:33 left in the 2nd qrt, SF up 6-0
The 5th drive started with another sack and -14 yards. F. Gore ran for a yard on second down and Kaepernick wasted 3rd down play with a behind-of-LOS pass to K. Williams who gained 5 yards, 4th-and-18 and another punt.

6th drive: Opp 26, 8:58 left in the 2nd qrt, SF up 6-0
SF defense helped the offense with another take-away, CB T. Brock intercepted QB C. Newton and got to CAR 24 yard line. F. Gore ran for 18 yards on first 2 plays. From CAR 6 yard line Kaepernick found V. Davis on a roll-out play. Davis seemed to fumble the ball and was injured on the play. The 49ers were lucky as the play, which was under review, was ruled as an incomplete pass. F. Gore ran for 4 yards on 3rd down, 1 yard short  of 1st down. The 49ers tried to draw a penalty from the Panthers on 4th-and-1, but it didn’t happen. SF took a 9-0 lead with another FG.

7th drive: Own 20, 1:52 left in the 2nd qrt, SF up 9-7
Kaepernick hit A. Boldin for 9 yards to start the last drive of the half. K. Hunter ran for 3 yards on 3rd-and-1. Kaepernick was pressured on the next play and took a sack for a loss of 8 yards. Feeling the pressure again, Kaepernick had to scramble for 1 yard. On 3rd-and-17 the 49ers decided to run to end the half. K Hunter gained 11 yards.

8th drive: Own 29, 11:57 left in the 3rd qrt, SF up 9-7
Kaepernick found Boldin for 9 yards but lost 6 yards on read-option run on the next play. With false start penalty the long 3rd down got even longer. On 3rd-and-12 Kaepernick hit F. Gore on a short pass for 10 yards. With 4th-and-2 the 49ers had to punt.

9th drive: Own 38, 3:41 left in the 3rd qrt, SF up 9-7
It was promising start of the drive as F. Gore gained 14 yards on first play. Neutral zone infraction penalty made it 1st-and-5. F. Gore gained another 4 yards, but on 2nd-and-1 from CAR 39 yard line K. Hunter fumbled the ball, recovered by CAR.

10th drive: Own 13, 0:13 left in the 3rd qrt, SF up 9-7
Another promising start to the drive. Kaepernick scrambled for 16 yards and unnecessary roughness penalty on CAR put the ball on SF 44 yard line. What followed was a series of poorly executed plays. First, M. Manningham dropped a short pass from Kaepernick. Next, it was TE V. McDonald who dropped perfectly thrown deep pass from Kaepernick. On the next play, Kaepernick connected with Manningham for 14 yards, but offensive pass interference on A. Boldin nullified the play. That led to a 3rd-and-25, Kaepernick had no chance and took another sack, another punt for the 49ers.

11th drive: Own 12, 10:05 left in the 4th qrt, SF down 10-9
Down for the first the 49ers had to respond, but instead they went 3-and-out. F. Gore carried the ball for 3 yards and 2 more incompletions led to another punt. The first one was an intentional throw-away pass by Kaepernick who was under pressure and escaped a possible sack, the second one was overthrown pass intended for A. Boldin.

12th drive: Own 1, 5:25 left in the 4th qrt, SF down 10-9
Late in the 4th qrt, trailing by 1, the 49ers had the worst starting field position. On 3rd-and-10 Kaepernick found M. Manningham for 14 yards and a first down. But the Panthers were in perfect spot to put pressure on Kaepernick who took another sack on the next play. Kaepernick hit Manningham for 6 yards and couldn’t connect with K. Williams on 3rd down play. Punt time.

13th drive: Own 20, 1:02 left in the 4th qrt, SF down 10-9
With just over a minute to play in the game, Kaepernick had one last chance to engineer a comeback. The attempt to lead the 49ers to a victory quickly ended. Kaepernick was sacked on the first play of the drive, with no time-outs left the 49ers lost a lot of valuable time. On the next play Kaepernick forced a pass into traffic and was intercepted which sealed the win for the Panthers.

Drive stats
Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers had 52 offensive plays and scored 0.7 points per drive. Kaepernick turned the ball over once, the interception came on his last pass of the game.

W10-drive statsOffensive formations
Kaepernick was under center less than 50% of all offensive snaps for the first time since Week 4 (vs Indianapolis). Again, the pistol offense wasn’t used as much as in the last season’s playoffs. The rate of pistol formation could go up though If the 49ers plan to use RB L. James more in the coming weeks. Just like in other 2 losses this season, shotgun was used more than 40%.

W10-formationsPass plays
Out of 52 offensive plays 31 were designed pass plays: 22 pass attempts, 3 scrambles and career high for Kaepernick – 6 sacks.

W10-passingWith all the pressure coming at him, Kaepernick couldn’t really settle into passing rhythm. Only 2.2 Yards per Pass Play is his career low mark and almost unbelievable 19.4% sack rate is highest mark in his career.

W10-YPPKaepernick completed 4 of 6 3rd down pass attempts for 31 yards with 79.2 passer rating.

W10-3rd 4th downHere’s a breakdown of all Kaepernick’s 3rd down plays:

W10-3rd4thD situationsUnder pressure

W10-under pressureColin Kaepernick was pressured on 11 (35.5%) of his total drop backs – the highest rate so far in 2013. He attempted 3 passes when under pressure with 0 completions and was sacked 6 times. The other 2 pressure plays were scrambles.

Incompletions
Kaepernick completed 11 of 22 passes. He was intercepted once, the rest were 10 incompletions.

W10-incompletionsRun plays
Kaepernick only ran on 1 designed run play from pistol formation and lost 6 yards on read-option run. He scrambled 3 times, 2 of those scrambles were forced by Carolina’s pressure. Here’s a table with comparison to last season and 1st half of the 2013.

W10-rushingConclusion
After first 9 games of 2013 I think we’ve seen enough to safely say that the 49ers don’t ask from Kaepernick to go through a lot of reads in passing game. The 49ers try to find favorable match-ups with scheme, pre-snap motions and V. Davis is a big part of that offense. And when Davis was out of the game against the Panthers it became that much more difficult for Colin Kaepernick to have any success on offense against stout Carolina defense. Apart form 3-step drop backs, quick short throws the Panthers rarely allowed Kaepernick to throw comfortably within the pocket and they constantly put pressure on him. According to Football Outsiders the Panthers now have league’s best defense, so give credit to Carolina who forced Kaepernick to have his worst day as a pro.
Kaepernick never really developed the right connection with WR Kyle Williams who was released by the 49ers yesterday. With Manningham back, and with Crabtree expected to return early in December the 49ers might get much-needed boost in passing dimension of the offense. So far Vernon Davis (7) and Anquan Boldin (2) are the only 2 players to have TD receptions for San Francisco.
It’s hard for me to believe the 49ers can bounce back against the Saints next week in New Orleans and suddenly find an explosive passing attack. The Saints have so much weapons on offense and it will be difficult for San Francisco to keep up on offense, especially if V. Davis can’t go.

2013 NFL Week 10 picks

Already Week 10 in the NFL coming up. It will start tonight with TNF game between Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings. I went 7-6 with my Week 9 NFL picks which makes it 87-46 overall for this season. Here are my picks for TNF and the rest of Week 10 games. I might revise my picks later on this week before the early games on Sunday kick off.

Week 10