2012 NFL midseason Scoreability and Bendability Index

First 9 weeks are behind us and with 132 games already played the NFL’s just crossed the midpoint of the regular season. At the end of last season I posted Final 2011 Scoreability & Bendability standings. Scoreability and bendability are just two of many quality stats first introduces at Cold Hard Football Facts. Halfway there, it seems appropriate to look at how teams rank on this two quality stats because they are much more correlated with wins in the NFL than the official stats such as total offense and total defense.

The scoreability¬†and bendability indices are team-wide indicators, measuring teams’ ability to turn yards into points and they both take into account not only teams’ offensive or defensive performance but also include performance of special teams units.

Scoreability index is calculated by dividing total yards with total points scored. The result of this calculation is Yards per Point Scored (YPS). The lower the number, the more efficiently a team scores points.

Bendability index is calculated by dividing total yards allowed with total points allowed. The result of this calculation is Yards per Point Allowed (YPA). The higher the number, the more difficult a team makes it for opponents to score points.

Here’s a table of 1st half 2012 Scoreability and Bendability index for all 32 NFL teams.
Teams currently making the playoff are colored in blue (NFC) and red (AFC).

I compared the standings above with standings based on yards per game (total offense & total defense). Once again I can make the same conclusion I’ve made many times before. Total offense & defense are so-called ‘volume’ stats and don’t show the real picture when measuring teams in the NFL. Teams ranked high on total offense or defense don’t necessary win a lot of games. Perfect example are 2012 Dallas Cowboys, at midpoint of their season they are ranked 6th on total offense and 5th on total defense – top 10 on both statistical categories but with losing record sitting at 3-5. It is different story when we look at the Cowboys and how they rank on scoreability and bendability index. They are 30th on scoreability and 25th on bendability which basically tells us that Dallas plays inefficient and one of the worst ‘situational’ football among all NFL teams. Obviously scoreability and bendability are two stats that are much closer to ‘reality’ in the NFL.

So far in the season, top 10 ranked teams on total offense have a combined record of 43-38 (53.1%), 4 of those teams have losing records and only 4 would make the playoffs if the season ended after Week 9. Total defense shows slightly better picture as top 10 ranked teams have a 50-32 record (61.0%) with only one team with losing record and 6 making the playoffs.

On both, scoreability and bendability index, top 10 teams have a much better combined record, 58-24 (70.7%) and there’s not a single team with losing record ranked top 10 on both indicators and 8 out of 10 teams would make the playoffs. Scoreability and bendability clearly paint a much better picture in terms of which teams played efficient football through the first half of the season.

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