Quality Standings – Week 12

After Week 12 in the NFL all 32 teams played ¾ of their regular season games. I put up a table of so-called Quality Standings in order to measure teams based on games they’ve played only against opponents with winning record. Teams with winning records ( meaning they have more wins than losses) are so-called ‘quality’ teams.Here’s a list of 17 teams currently holding a winning record,

Green Bay Packers (11-0)
San Francisco 49ers (9-2)
Houston Texans (8-3)
New England Patriots (8-3)
Baltimore Ravens 8-3
New Orleans Saints 8-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-3
Dallas Cowboys 7-4
Oakland Raiders 7-4
Chicago Bears 7-4
Detroit Lions 7-4
Cincinnati Bengals 7-4
Atlanta Falcons 7-4
New York Giants 6-5
Tennessee Titans 6-5
New York Jets 6-5
Denver Broncos 6-5

and the table with Quality Standings, teams in bold are currently in position to make the playoffs,  if season ended today:

A few observations from the Quality standings above:

– Miami, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Carolina and Arizona all have failed to win against ‘quality’ teams

– Baltimore Ravens have the most wins so far against ‘quality’ teams, but the Packers of course hold the perfect record also in Quality Standings since they haven’t lost a game so far

– Tampa Bay is a team with most games played against ‘quality’ teams, they hold a 2-7 record, New York Giants have played the fewest games against ‘quality’ teams, they hold a 1-2 record

– teams in NFC East division have the fewest wins against ‘quality’ teams, teams in AFC North have the most wins, combined they’ve won 10 games against teams with winning record.

Teams are headed into final and most important month in the regular season, standings will of course change with each week. Next time that I’ll post Quality Standings  will be after Week 17 when I’ll post the final Quality Standings.

Week 12 Review

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Pick: Packers 34-31, Against The Spread: Lions (+6.5), Result: Packers 27-15

Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys 23-20, Against The Spread: Dolphins (+6.5), Result: Cowboys 20-19

San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens
Pick: 49ers 17-14, Against The Spread: 49ers (+3.5), Result: Ravens 16-6

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Falcons 31-17, Against The Spread: Falcons (-9.5), Result: Falcons 24-14

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets 23-13, Against The Spread: Jets (-8.5), Result: Jets 28-24

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals 27-18, Against The Spread: Bengals (-7.5), Result: Bengals 23-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Tennessee Titans
Pick: Titans 27-20, Against The Spread: Titans (-3.5) , Result: Titans 23-17

Carolina Panthers @ Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Panthers 28-25, Against The Spread: Colts (+3.5), Result: Panthers 27-19

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Pick: Rams 20-17, Against The Spread: Cardinals (+3.5), Result: Cardinals 23-20

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Texans 24-15, Against The Spread: Texans (-3.5), Result: Texans 20-13

Chicago Bears @ Oakland Raiders
Pick: Bears 26-23, Against The Spread: Raiders (+4.5), Result: Raiders 25-20

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks 24-17, Against The Spread: Seahawks (+4.5), Result: Redskins 24-17

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Pick: Chargers 23-17, Against The Spread: Broncos (+6.5) , Result: Broncos 16-13 OT

New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Patriots 27-23, Against The Spread: Eagles (+4.5), Result: Patriots 38-20

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Steelers 33-18, Against The Spread: Steelers (-10.5), Result: Steelers 13-9

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints 27-17, Against The Spread: Saints (-6.5), Result: Saints 49-24

Week 12:
Non-spread: 11-5, Against The Spread: 8-8

Overall record:
Non-spread: 120-56
Against The Spread: 58-54

Week 12 NFL picks

Sunday games and Monday Night Football game are subject to change. I’ll revise my picks based on available information during the week (injury report). 

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions, Thursday 12:30 PM (ET). Just like any other team facing Green Bay this season, Detroit’s best chance is probably to try to establish running game and keep the ball away from Aaron Rodgers. But that’s easier said than done, Rodgers will have his chances and he’ll lead the Pack to another victory.
Pick: Packers, 34-31
Against The Spread: Lions (+6.5)

Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys, Thursday 4:15 PM (ET). Cowboys didn’t look good last week in overtime victory against Redskins. But a win is a win. In order to stay in contention for division title Dallas needs this game, it will be difficult, Miami has played solid on defense especially against the run, so Cowboys will have to rely on Romo and their air attack.
Pick: Cowboys: 23-20
Against The Spread: Dolphins (+6.5)

San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens, Thursday 8:20 PM (ET). Tough luck for 49ers who have to travel East again and on top of that play on Thanksgiving Night. But so far in the season 49ers have proven they can overcome this as long as they pack their defense along. All hype before the game is about the Harbaughs, but it will be the 49ers defense who will be highlighted after the game is over.
Pick: 49ers, 17-14
Against The Spread: 49ers (+3.5)

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). RB Adrian Peterson is questionable for this game, what is not questionable are Atlanta’s chances, Falcons should win this one easily.

Pick: Falcons, 31-17
Against The Spread: Falcons (-9.5)

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). This is elimination game for both teams, winner extends his chances in playoff race. I think Jets will be the ones who will extend their slim playoff chances.

Pick: Jets, 23-13
Against The Spread: Jets (-8.5)

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Andy Dalton keeps playing better and better and he should get plenty of help from WR A.J.Green who’s expected to play this Sunday. Browns are solid at shutting down opposing teams’ air attack, but with Green again in the lineup Bengals are in a good position, they too keep their playoff hopes alive with a win against Cleveland.
Pick: Bengals, 27-18
Against The Spread: Bengals (-7.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Tennessee Titans, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Titans won’t score as much points on Buccaneers as Packers did last week, but they probably have better defense which should be good enough. Titans will  limit QB Josh Freeman and RB LeGarette Blount and get an important win at home.
Pick: Titans, 27-20
Against The Spread: Titans (-3.5)

Carolina Panthers @ Indianapolis Colts, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). This is the best chance for Colts to get their first win in the season as they play hosts to rookie QB Cam Newton and the Panthers who didn’t play good on the road so far. After the bye week Colts will come up with enough plays to keep it close, but again it won’t be enough.
Pick: Panthers, 28-25
Against The Spread: Colts (+3.5)

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). The last time this two teams met Patrick Peterson made all the difference, this time his solid performance won’t be enough as Steven Jackson and the Rams get their 3rd win of the season.

Pick: Rams, 20-17
Against The Spread: Cardinals (+3.5)

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday 4:05 PM (ET). Texans put QB Matt Schaub on IR and will get WR Andre Johnson back from injury. But the biggest question is can Jacksonville Jaguars stop RB Arian Foster? I think they can’t, Houston keeps on winning and stay on playoff course.
Pick: Texans, 24-15
Against The Spread: Texans (-3.5)

Chicago Bears @ Oakland Raiders, Sunday 4:05 PM (ET). With Cutler’s injury Bears will have to rely on RB Matt Forte even more than they did so far in the season. It will be difficult for the Raiders without RB Darren McFadden to go against tough Bears’ defense.
Pick: Bears, 26-23
Against The Spread: Raiders (+4.5)

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks, Sunday 4:05 PM (ET). Seattle has a chance to win their third straight against Redskins who can’t get much going on offense. Seattle is playing solid defense which should be enough to give them a chance to win.
Pick: Seahawks, 24-17
Against The Spread: Seahawks (+4.5)

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). Something just doesn’t feel right. Tim Tebow is having a better season than Philip Rivers. I give Chargers another chance to right their ship and stay in the battle for AFC West division title.
Pick: Chargers, 23-17
Against The Spread: Broncos (+6.5)

New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). Earlier on in this week I thought Eagles can upset Patriots at home If QB Michael Vick plays. Vick is ruled out for this game, as is WR Jeremy Maclin. Eagles will make this a close game but without Vick at quarterback I think they can’t keep pace with Brady and ther rest of the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots, 27-23
Against The Spread:  Eagles (+4.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday 8:20 PM (ET). It just gets worse for the Chiefs as they wait for Steelers to come and punish them just like Patriots did on Monday Night. After a bye week Pittsburgh will be ready for Chiefs with Tyler Palko at quarterback .

Pick: Steelers, 33-18
Against The Spread: Steelers (-10.5)

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints, Monday 8:30 PM (ET). New Orleans Saints are coming off their bye week and they will be prepared for the Giants who couldn’t get anything going on offense last week against the Eagles. I’m thinking Giants will have hard time keeping up with Saints’ offensive fireworks.
Pick: Saints, 27-17
Against The Spread: Saints (-6.5)


Passer & Rusher Rating Differential

In the NFL, teams can be measured based on many statistics. In this post I’ll try to measure teams based on passer and rusher rating differential.

Passer Rating Differential (PRD) is calculated by subtracting a team’s Defensive Passer Rating (DPR) from its Offensive Passer Rating (OPR). Teams with a high Passer Rating Differential are ranked higher, because they can pass on opposing teams and they can successfully defend against the pass. There are many Passer Rating calculators on the net, so I won’t get  into specifics how passer rating is calculated.
Imput data are: number of passing attempts, number of completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns and number of interceptions. Based on those data we can then calculate offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating.

Rusher Rating Differential (RRD) is calculated by subtracting a team’s Defensive Rusher Rating (DRR) from its Offensive Rusher Rating (ORR). Teams with a high Rusher Rating Differential are ranked higher, because they can run and they can stop the run.

Rusher rating probably isn’t so widely known stat, so I’ll try to explain how can we obtain offensive or defensive rushing rating.
Imput data are: number of rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and number of fumbles.

Rusher Rating = ( Y + TD + F )* 100/4.5

Where Y  – average yards gained per attempt  = Yards/(4.05*rushing attempts)

            TD – percentage of touchdowns per carry = (39.5*touchdowns)/rushing attempts

            F – percentage of fumbles per carry = 2.375 – ((21.5*fumbles)/rushing attempts))

As of now through Week 11, two best teams in the NFL, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers, rank No.1 if we measure teams based on passer & rusher rating differential. Packers are by far the best team in Passer Rating Differential and 49ers obviously can run and they are also capable of stopping the run, so they rank No.1 based on Rusher Rating Differential.

What follows  are tables with teams ranked based on passer & rusher rating differential.

Week 11 Review

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Pick: Jets 24-16, Against The Spread: Jets (-4.5), Result: Broncos 17-13

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Bills 21-20, Against The Spread: Bills (+2.5), Result: Dolphins 35-8

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Ravens 24-21, Against The Spread: Bengals (+7.5), Result: Ravens 31-24

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns
Pick: Jaguars 19-13, Against The Spread: Jaguars (-0.5), Result: Browns 14-10

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Pick: Cowboys 27-17, Against The Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)  , Result: Cowboys 27-24 OT

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions
Pick: Lions 23-20, Against The Spread: Panthers (+6.5), Result: Lions 49-35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers 28-17, Against The Spread: Buccaneers (+14.5) , Result: Packers 35-26

Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Raiders 27-24, Against The Spread: Raiders (+1.5), Result: Raiders 27-21

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Pick: Seahawks 22-17, Against The Spread: Seahawks (+2.5), Result: Seahawks 24-7

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 49ers 27-21, Against The Spread: Cardinals (+9.5)  , Result: 49ers 23-7

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Falcons 28-25, Against The Spread: Titans (+6.5), Result: Falcons 23-17

San Diego Chargers @ Chicago Bears
Pick: Bears 31-23, Against The Spread: Bears (-3.5), Result: Bears 31-20

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants 26-21, Against The Spread: Giants (-3.5), Result: Eagles 17-10

Kansas City Chiefs @ New Enlgand Patriots
Pick: Patriots 34-13, Against The Spread: Patriots (-14.5) , Result: Patriots 34-3

Week 11:
Non-spread: 10-4, Against The Spread: 7-7

Overall record:
Non-spread: 109-51
Against The Spread: 50-46

Week 11 NFL picks

Sunday games and Monday Night Football game are subject to change. I’ll revise my picks based on available information during the week (injury report). 

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos, Thursday 8:20 PM (ET). Broncos could be without RB McGahee which will put extra pressure on QB Tim Tebow. Jets will do much better job defensively  then the Chiefs did last week. Their solid secondary gives them opportunity to put an extra man or two in the box to stuff Denver’s ground attack.
Pick: Jets, 24-16
Against The Spread: Jets (-4.5)

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Bills haven’t been the same since 5-0 start to the season. They won only 2 in past 6 games they played. Now they have to travel to Miami who won 2 straight. In order to stay in playoff race Bills can’t afford to lose to Miami Dolphins.
Pick: Bills: 21-20
Against The Spread: Bills (+2.5)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Just like we thought Bengals’ season may be defined by how they fare against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Last week Cincinnati played good against Steelers, but not good enough to win the game and Ravens – the masters of inconsistency, found a way again to underperform against supposedly inferior team. Huge division game in which Ravens eventually win in another hard-fought division game.
Pick: Ravens, 24-21
Against The Spread: Bengals (+7.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). I’ll be surprised if Maurice Jones-Drew doesn’t get at least 30 carries in this game. Browns are terrible at stopping the run and Jaguars so far couldn’t produce anything through the air. Look for big game from MJD as Jaguars try to pound the ball and control the clock.
Pick: Jaguars, 19-13 
Against The Spread: Jaguars (-0.5)

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Dallas Cowboys are in perfect spot to build on momentum they gained the last week with a blowout win against the Bills. Redskins are falling apart. Their defense dough is solid and Dallas probably won’t score 40+ points this week, still, Romo and Co. will put up enough points to beat the Redskins.
Pick: Cowboys, 27-17 
Against The Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). The Lions aren’t the same team without Jahvid Best. Best isn’t expected to be in the Lions’ lineup which means they won’t get their running game going. This could be a good matchup for Carolina who plays better pass defense. But I think this time Stafford lights up Carolina’s pass defense, look for tight end Pettigrew to have a big game.
Pick: Lions, 23-20 
Against The Spread: Panthers (+6.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Surely Packers can’t win all 16 regular season games, or can they? I watched them on TV on MNF, they ripped apart Vikings at Lambeau Field. This time the visitors will be Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Everything points to another Packers blowout win, but Bucs will show more resistance. At least I think so.
Pick: Packers, 28-17 
Against The Spread: Buccaneers (+14.5)

Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Playing on Thursday Night game, Raiders had extra time to prepare for Vikings who on top of that had to play on Monday Night. Raiders will continue to be a candidate for AFC West title after win in Metrodome.
Pick: Raiders, 27-24 
Against The Spread: Raiders (+1.5)

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams, Sunday 4:05 PM (ET). Marshawn Lynch vs Steven Jackson. I’ll take Lynch and Seahawks who are allowing considerably less yards on the ground than the Rams.

Pick: Seahawks, 22-17 
Against The Spread: Seahawks (+2.5)

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers, Sunday 4:05 PM (ET). This could be a lot closer game that many expect. Arizona so far lost 7 games and 4 of those were decided by 4 or fewer points. In the end 49ers’ efficiency on offense and defense will be too much for opportunistic Cardinals team.
Pick: 49ers, 27-21 
Against The Spread: Cardinals (+9.5)

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). After tough loss against Saints last week, Falcons’ confidence must be pretty low. Titans will try to take advantage of that. RB Chris Johnson finally had a good game last week, but he’ll face a much tougher Atlanta run defense. It will be a close game, much will depend if WR Julio Jones can go for Falcons or not.
 Pick: Falcons, 28-25 
Against The Spread: Titans (+6.5)

San Diego Chargers @ Chicago Bears, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). 4-1 start into season for Chargers seems so far away, just like 2-3 start for Bears. Chicago Bears are playing some good football lately and are improving week after week, Chargers are not.  After a dominating win against the Lions last week  Bears will stay on winning course with a win against San Diego.

Pick: Bears, 31-23 
Against The Spread: Bears (-3.5)

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants, Sunday 8:20 PM (ET). With Vick at quarterback or not I can’t see many chances for Eagles to win this game. Giants will be focused against division rival and their heavy pass-rush will be too much to handle for Eagles’ offensive line. If RB Bradshaw returns from injury for Giants on offense than the Eagles are really in trouble.
Pick: Giants, 26-21 
Against The Spread:  Giants (-3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots, Monday 8:30 PM (ET). Not a good timing to lose your starting QB after you already lost some key players on offense, Chiefs are in for a long night. Patriots should easily advance to 7-3 and stay on top of AFC East division.
Pick: Patriots, 34-13 
Against The Spread: Patriots (-14.5)

 

 
 

Week 10 Review

I guess it’s safe to say that this week crystal ball and I didn’t do well picking NFL winners. I correctly picked only 7 games which is by far my worst record so far. I did a bit better trying to pick winners against the spread.

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Pick: Chargers 30-23, Against The Spread: Chargers (-6.5), Result: Raiders 24-17

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Saints 33-30, Against The Spread: Saints (-0.5), Result: Saints 26-23 OT

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Bills 27-24, Against The Spread: Bills (+5.5), Result: Cowboys 44-7

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals 23-20, Against The Spread: Bengals (+3.5), Result: Steelers 24-17

St. Louis Rams @ Cleveland Browns
Pick: Browns 25-16, Against The Spread: Browns (-2.5), Result: Rams 13-12

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs 27-24, Against The Spread: Broncos (+3.5), Result: Broncos 17-10

Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: Titans 31-27, Against The Spread: Titans (+2.5) , Result: Titans 30-3

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Jaguars 25-22, Against The Spread: Jaguars (-2.5), Result: Jaguars 17-3

Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins 20-13, Against The Spread: Dolphins (-3.5), Result: Dolphins 20-9

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles 31-27, Against The Spread: Cardinals (+13.5), Result: Cardinals 21-17

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Texans 31-26, Against The Spread: Texans (-3.5), Result: Texans 37-9

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Ravens 27-17, Against The Spread: Ravens (-7.5), Result: Seahawks 22-17

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Pick: Lions 20-16, Against The Spread: Lions (+2.5), Result: Bears 37-13

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 49ers 24-20, Against The Spread: 49ers (-3.5), Result: 49ers 27-20

New Enlgand Patriots @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets 24-19, Against The Spread: Jets (-1.5), Result: Patriots 37-16

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers 28-17, Against The Spread: Vikings (+13.5), Result: Packers 45-7

Week 10:
Non-spread: 7-9, Against The Spread: 8-8

Overall record:
Non-spread: 99-47
Against The Spread: 44-38