NFL Single-season Passer Rating comparison

In my last post I took the NFL best Career Passer rating list and tried to come up with an era-adjusted list. This time I’ll look into NFL Single-season list from Pro Football Reference site and try to adjust single-season Passer ratings based on average rating for each season from 1970 to 2012. This way we will be able to compare player’s Single-season ratings from different NFL eras.

The calculation is the same as in Career Passer ratings, I took each player’s Single-season Passer rating and divided it with an average NFL rating for the season. For example, last season NYJ QB Mark Sanchez posted a 66.9 rating, if we divide his rating with 83.8 (2012 average passer rating) we get the % of average he was relative to the NFL. It turns out Sanchez was 20.2% below average rating of 2012. For a simple comparison, in 1977 CIN QB Ken Anderson posted a similar rating of 69.7, but back then the average NFL rating was only 57.8, which puts Anderson’s achievement 20.6% above 1977 average rating, therefore his 1977 season was a lot better compared to Sanchez’s 2012 season.

Before I present the top 20 Single-season Passer rating list based on those calculation let’s first look at top 20 players from Pro Football Reference’s list, only for quarterbacks from 1970 to 2012 with a minimum of 175 pass attempt (if played in 14-game regular season), minimum of 200 pass attempt (if played in 16-game regular season) or minimum of 100 pass attempts in a strike-shortened 1982 season.

As we can see from the table on the left, a lot of active or just recently retired players are on the top 20 list which doesn’t make a lot of sense. From the top 20 list there are 13 quarterback single-season ratings from last 10 years and Staubach’s exceptional 1971 season just barely makes the list. QB Aaron Rodgers tops the list with an absolute highest single-season passer rating.

This list too would look much better if we list the best quarterback single-season ratings based on % above average rating for the season. Here is the list:

There are 7 different HOF players with total of 12 seasons that rank top 20 of % above average which makes a lot more sense. Aaron Rodgers’ absolute best mark drops to No.16 with 48.5% above 2011 average. Only 2 active players ‘survived’ the adjusted list with Tom Brady just missing the cut with 44.9% above average in 2007 season in which he posted a 117.2 passer rating.

Like I said in earlier post in which I made a comparison of Career Passer ratings, the rating was designed to fit the passing efficiency of NFL passers in the early 70′s which probably explains why there are 8 out of 13 passers on the adjusted list from that era. As the average rating steadily climbs higher and higher each year,  as seen on the chart from earlier post, it is that much more difficult for new era NFL players to beat the average rating with percentages seen in earlier years. Nevertheless I still think this list gives better comparison between players’ single-season results from different eras.

NFL Career Passer Rating comparison

Passer rating is one of the most widely used stat when evaluating quarterbacks and teams around the NFL. Just like the name of the stat says it only measures how good NFL quarterbacks are when passing the ball. The rating doesn’t take into account quarterback’s ability to run with the ball nor his ability to avoid any sacks. It only measures passing efficiency. It was first calculated in 1971 and therefore designed to fit passing efficiency of quarterbacks  in completely different NFL era. Since 1970′s the league has changed a lot, many innovations and rule changes, especially West-Coast offense and famous ‘Mel Blount’ rule, led to an increase of league-wide passer rating. For example, in 1971 when Passer rating was first introduced, teams posted an average rating of 59.3 and in the season before the ‘Mel Blount’ rule was applied, an average Passer rating was at the lowest point of post-merger era – 57.8. After most recent ‘players safety’ rule changes  the average rating made it to the highest point in NFL history last season as it climbed to 83.8. Despite the changes, the rating is still a solid measure of quarterback’s efficiency, that is passing efficiency, but the ratings from different NFL seasons should be adjusted for the era in which they’ve been recorded.
Here’s a look at steady climb of the league-wide Passer rating for the years from the AFL-NFL merger (1970) to  NFL record-season (2012) which will give us a hint why those rankings should be adjusted.

From the chart above (click on image to enlarge) we can see that an average quarterback from recent years would have been an above average quarterback if compared to passers from 1970′s, 80′s and even 1990′s. In fact, an average QB from 2012 would have been a top 5 QB in 1977 and a top 10 QB in 1988. Obviously those numbers aren’t comparable. A better way to rank passers across different NFL eras would be to measure how good they were compared to a league average in years they’ve played. We can take each quarterback’s Career Passer Rating (CPR) and divide it by Average Passer Rating (APR) for the years of quarteback’s career. The result of this calculation is a % of average the quarterback was relative to the NFL. Based on those percentages we can then see if certain player was above or below average of an era in which he played. With those results we can better compare quarterbacks and their Passer ratings from different eras. For example, Joe Montana played from 1979 to 1994 and has a Career Passer Rating of 92.3, but the Average Passer Rating for the years in which Joe played (has thrown at least 1 pass) was only 72.6, that means Joe has a career rating which is 27.1% better if compared to an average rating of his era.

Before I present the best quarterback careers based on those calculations let’s first look at the most efficient passers in league history – ranked on Passer rating without any adjustments for era in which they’ve played. I took Pro Football Reference’s list of NFL Career Passer Rating leaders and left on the list only quarterbacks who played at least 50% of their careers in post-merger years. Here are the top 20 players from the filtered list.

It’s not a surprise that majority of players from above list are still active players. They play in NFL era in with is much easier to have a season with 80+ Passer rating, that’s why they are high on the list, but that doesn’t mean they are better players than the ones who played in earlier decades. One of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, Roger Staubach didn’t make it to the top 20 only because he played in an era in which it was much more difficult to have a Passer rating of, let’s say 80, a rating which is nowadays an average rating.

For a better quarterback comparison across NFL eras I put up a table of top 20 quarterbacks in which I sorted players based on % above average Passer rating of the era in which they’ve played.

A lot more Hall Of Fame players make the list, led by Roger Staubach, Philip Rivers falls from 6th to 18th place, Tony Romo from 5th to 16th and many active players listed on the first list disappear from the era-adjusted list. It doesn’t ‘adjust’ the fact that the rating was designed for a different era or the way the rating is calculated. That’s why the presented adjusted list isn’t a perfect list of NFL best quarterbacks from 1970-2012, but if you want to rank player’s careers based on Passer ratings I think this is a better way compared to the list of Passer ratings without any era adjustments.

In the comings days I’ll post a similar comparison for the NFL best Single-season Passer ratings.

2012 NFL Playoff picks – Super Bowl XLVII

Only two teams left in the hunt for Lombardi trophy, AFC Champions Baltimore Ravens and NFC Champions San Francisco 49ers, who will play in this year’s biggest game  - Super Bowl XLVII.

     Baltimore Ravens (13-6) vs San Francisco 49ers (13-4-1), Sunday 6:30 PM (ET)

Prediction 

For years to come, Super Bowl XLVII will be remembered as ‘Harbowl’ – the battle of two teams coached by two brothers, John and Jim Harbaugh. Both teams are well-coached and had two weeks to prepare for a big game and I honestly think this will be a close game between AFC and NFC Champions.
The Ravens didn’t play to their standard on defense the majority of this season due to injury problems, but come playoff time, they’ve played exceptionally well on defensive side of the ball. The 49ers on other side, compared to the playoffs, played much better on defense during the regular season and their defensive line didn’t produce the same amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks which is why teams have been able to exploit 49ers’ secondary in this year’s playoffs. So look for Ravens’ offense led by QB Joe Flacco to try to do the same, exploit 49ers’ secondary and come up with game-breaking big plays downfield. When on offense, San Francisco will try to implement their style of offense, power running game combined with pistol formations mastered by second year QB Colin Kaepernick. Could be the game will be decided on special teams play where Ravens have an advantage over San Francisco. But overall I still think the 49ers are the better team, and their offense will find ways to score on Raven’s defense just enough to bring the city of San Francisco 6th Super Bowl Trophy.

 

Pick: 49ers 20-18, Result: Ravens 34-31
Against The Spread: Ravens (+3.5)
Over/Under: Under 47.5

2012 NFL Playoff picks – AFC Championship game

Baltimore Ravens (12-6) @ New England Patriots (13-4), Sunday 6:30 PM (ET)

Prediction 

Just like last season, it will happen again this season, the Patriots and the Ravens battling out for the right to represent AFC Champion in this year’s Super Bowl. And just like last season it will be New England with a home-field advantage. In the case of the Patriots home field is truly a big advantage in the playoffs as they hold the best record with 14 wins and only 3 losses. The Ravens on other hand hold the best record for road playoff games, they are 8-5 on the road and they already beat the Patriots this season in a game played in Baltimore. This will be only the third time both teams meet in a playoff game and I think it will be close as have been the last few games including last season’s Championship game. With lots of momentum I think the Ravens have a chance against Patriots as long as their QB Joe Flacco can play at a level he’s been playing lately. I anticipate close game, this time with different outcome, Ravens win and advance to the big game.

Pick: Ravens 30-27, Result: Ravens 28-13
Against The Spread: Ravens (+7.5)
Over/Under: Over 51.5






 

2012 NFL Playoff picks – NFC Championship game

Only four teams left with a chance to advance to this year’s Super Bowl, 3 of those teams are the same as last year but only the New England Patriots have a chance to repeat Super Bowl appearance. Last season we saw close games decided in last seconds of regulation and overtime as has been the case in NFC championship game, let’s hope for another exciting Conference Championship weekend. First, here is my pick for NFC Championship game.

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (14-3), Sunday 3:00 PM (ET)

Prediction 

The Falcons finally won a playoff game in Matt Ryan era and have to feel pretty good about themselves going into Conference title game after they beat the hottest team in the NFL – Seattle Seahawks. The last time the Falcons played in NFC Championship game was back in 1998 when they beat Minnesota on the road in a game decided in overtime. For San Francisco this will be second consecutive Championship game, last season the 49ers lost the game against the Giants also decided in overtime. On paper the 49ers match well against Falcons team who had problems running the ball and stopping opposing ground attack. So look for the 49ers to try to exploit Atlanta’s run defense early on in the game. It is crucial for San Francisco not to fall behind early if they want to have any success against the home team. Atlanta on other hand will look to attack the 49ers through the air and I can see Falcons having success against 49ers secondary especially if defensive line doesn’t step up and pressure QB Matt Ryan. With the latest distraction surrounding WR Michael Crabtree the 49ers have a tough task ahead, but still I think this time it will be their offense who will come up with solid performance and lead this team to Super Bowl.

Pick: 49ers 26-24, Result: 49ers 28-24
Against The Spread: Falcons (+3.5)
Over/Under: Over 48.5






 

2012 NFL Playoff picks – Divisional Playoffs, Sunday games

The two games that have already played out on Saturday proved yet again that the best and most exciting football is played in Divisional playoff round. On Saturday the Ravens beat the Broncos in double overtime and the 49ers beat the Packers to advance to Conference Championship games. I went 1-1 with  Saturday Divisional playoff picks, here are my picks for 2 Sunday Divisional round games.

Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3), Sunday 1:00 PM (ET)

Prediction 

This is supposed to be a great matchup between physical Seahawks’ secondary going against one of the best air attack in the league. Seattle is playing great on defense in general and I think they’ll be able to limit Atlanta’s passing game especially if they can stuff their running game early on in the game. For Atlanta on other hand it will be even more crucial to stop Seattle’s ground game, not only Seattle’s running backs but also rookie quarterback Russell Wilson who can make plays on the ground. Atlanta had plenty of time to prepare for dangerous Seattle team and the Falcons have an important home-field advantage in a game that will be played at 1 PM Eastern Time. The last two Seattle losses were against Detroit and Miami and both games were early games played on East Coast. This is a second consecutive trip to East Coast for Seattle Seahawks and I think they won’t be able to overcome that even tough I expect another solid performance from their defensive unit.

Pick: Falcons 24-23, Result: Falcons 30-28
Against The Spread: Seahawks (+2.5)
Over/Under: Over 45.5






Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4), Sunday 4:30 PM (ET)

Prediction 

This is a rematch from regular season game in which the Patriots beat up the Texans 42-14. I expect it to be much closer battle than it was in Week 14 on Monday Night when nothing seemed to go Texans’ way and I think Houston will be hungry to revenge regular season loss and will be difficult to beat. With a couple of late season losses Texans lost the right to host this playoff game which could end up being a big disadvantage. With Tom Brady at quarterback the Patriots are 10-2 when playing at home and will look to improve on that record. Like I said I anticipate much closer game but I’m going with New England to win this one at home and advance to AFC championship game for the second year in a row.

Pick: Patriots 27-21, Result: Patriots 41-28
Against The Spread: Texans (+9.5)
Over/Under: Under 48.5

2012 NFL Playoff picks – Divisional Playoffs, Saturday games

After Wild Card weekend there are only 8 teams left in the hunt for Lombardy trophy, 4 of those teams will advance to next Sunday’s Conference Championship games. First, here are my picks for Saturday Divisional Playoffs games.

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3), Saturday 4:30 PM (ET)

Prediction 

The last time this two teams met it was Week 13 of 2012 regular season. The Broncos led 31-3 at the end of 3rd quarter and easily won the game played in Baltimore with final score 34-17. This time the game will be played in Denver and the Broncos should have no problem advancing to the AFC Championship game next Sunday. But this is a playoff game, divisional round and chances are there will be an upset in one of 4 games this weekend. Somehow I’m not comfortable with picking against the Broncos who will have to face the Ravens led by QB Joe Flacco. Flacco had it rough all season when playing on the road and Broncos’ defense will probably make it even harder for him than the last time they played them Week 13 of the regular season in which Flacco completed only 50% of his passes. Again, I can’t see how could Flacco outplay QB Peyton Manning’s offense who scored an average of 33 points in the last 5 regular season games. True, it happen against not so good opponents but I think that Denver will find ways to score enough points on the Ravens and advance to AFC championship game.

Pick: Broncos 26-20, Result: Ravens 38-35 (2OT)
Against The Spread: Ravens (+9.5)
Over/Under: Over 45.5






Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1), Saturday 8:00 PM (ET)

Prediction 

Just like Denver and Baltimore this two NFC rivals also played during regular season, but a lot has changed since Week 1. This time San Francisco will try to beat the Packers with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback and with injured DT Justin Smith. The Packers come to San Francisco healthier and with more balance on offense compared to earlier part of the season. If the 49ers want to beat the Packers they’ll again have to shut down opponent’s running game and force QB Aaron Rodgers to make mistakes. When on offense, the Niners will try to run the ball as much as possible in order to keep Rodgers off the field. Even without Justin Smith at full strength, I believe 49ers D-line can make Packers’ offense a bit more one-dimensional. It will be difficult for 49ers to win this game, but it’s playoff time and I have no intention to pick against San Francisco as they face their toughest challenge so far in this season.

Pick: 49ers 28-26, Result: 49ers 45-31
Against The Spread: Packers (+3.5)
Over/Under: Over 45.5